Friday, October 29, 2010

Eleven reasons Georgia beats Florida tomorrow

You can also find this blog on http://chuckoliver.net as I now cover the Bulldog beat for The Kang of College Football

Let’s forget for a minute about the “history” here that Florida has won 17 of the last 20 games as well as that, despite that incredible run for the Gators, Georgia still owns the all-time series lead. Let’s just not take that into account when the two teams tussle in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party….outside of Mardi Gras.” (wait, can I still call it that?) What happened 11 years ago doesn’t have any hold on what happens this Saturday. Just remember that. The only people that should be bragging about 17 in 20 are drunk Gator fans yelling at 70-year-old Georgia fans who are tailgating with an inflatable gator pool toy tied up to their RV.

This year will be different for the Georgia Bulldogs. This year will be the year that the Dawgs perhaps start their own streak of 17 of the next 20. This will be the year that Urban Meyer blubbers after the game about how much he loves his team despite another loss. This year…well a guy can dream, right?

In all seriousness, there are eleven reasons why Georgia will win the Cocktail Party this season. And here they are…

No.1 The best player on the field will be wearing red and black. Since returning from a four-game suspension, AJ Green has shown EVERYONE why he might just be the first non-quarterback taken in the upcoming NFL draft. In his first game back in Colorado, Green only made a catch that I believe is STILL being shown on SportsCenter, and Georgia owned that game while he was playing; only when he left did Georgia lose. Since his season-debut in Athens against Tennessee, he has been playing like a man possessed. He is determined to prove that he is THE weapon in college football and the Athens-faithful should get a good look over the last few games as he will be catching passes in Buffalo or San Francisco next season.

No.2 Georgia is pretty good at forcing turnovers. Not sure if you realized it but THIS SEASON, Georgia is GETTING THE BALL BACK. After years of not being able to squeeze potential INTs and not forcing and finding the fumbles, Georgia is creating turnovers and then capitalizing on them. Last week against Kentucky, Georgia forced a fumble on Kentucky’s opening drive and then took advantage for an early score. And in case you forgot, Florida has a bit of an issue with just snapping the ball…

No.3 Justin Houston suits up for Georgia. I remember in 2007 when Marcus Howard was sacking Tebow every time he dropped back. Houston has been thriving the last two seasons and this year he has stepped it up even more, piling up 8.5 sacks and moving to within 5.5 of the single-season record. Houston is always in the backfield and could be a first round pick this April in the NFL draft.

No.4 Brandon Boykin reminded everyone that he can still take it to the house. The Georgia return game, when unleashed, is just lethal. Boykin returned a kick 100 yards against Kentucky after doing it twice last season. And Branden Smith is returning from a pair of concussions to bolster a punt return unit that had AJ Green back there over the last few weeks.

No.5 Blair Walsh is a MAN kicking that ball. Last week it finally happened: Blair Walsh missed an extra point. First of his career. Yep. He stinks right? Nope. He had set the school record and I still trust the junior kicker to make any kick this side of 65 yards and if it is longer, I still give him better than 50% odds.

No.6 Drew Butler helps out the defense. The best punter in the college game last season has been a weapon once again, constantly hanging balls high to allow the coverage team to descend upon the return units. That will be important this week as Florida’s Meyer puts pride in his return units. If Butler can flip the field position game and keep the Gator offense always starting inside its own 20, then the Dawgs should get out with a win.

No.7 The offensive line is starting to play like Phil Steele thought it would. Before the season, many publications predicted Georgia to have one of the top offensive lines in the country. Until the last few weeks, the line has looked awful at run blocking and passable at pass protection. Against Vandy, the line started opening up holes and last week in Lexington, Ealey had holes open up for five TDs. Enough said. These guys are starting to play with the return of Trinton Sturdivant to his 2007-form.

No.8 Other receivers have stepped up. A blessing in disguise (if you can call going 1-3 without him a blessing) with Green out may have been the return of Kris Durham and the emergence of Tavarres King. Durham showed he is more than just a third down specialist and with King out there, the Dawgs may have found the No.1 next season when Green is gone. He has nice size, some speed and could emerge as an All-SEC performer.

No.9 Karma. It sounds weird, but Florida might have angered the football and moral gods by letting Chris Rainey back on the field. Urban Meyer is getting raked over the coals for his decision to let “Time To Die” back on the field. Is Meyer starting to crack a bit? The guy has two national titles but is showing signs of desperation. A desperate man is dangerous but sometimes a little shove will send him over the edge.

No.10 The new-look defense. Clearly whatever Willie Martinez was throwing at Florida the last two seasons wasn’t working. By mixing it up to a 3-4 with multiple looks, Georgia has become the top run defense in the SEC. Florida, who struggles with the run will have to put it up and then you have Sanders Commings and Jordan Love and Vance Cuff, who have been playing better, bolstered by Smith and Boykin out there. The sheer numbers with game experience that Georgia can throw out there means something will have to give for Florida’s offense.

No.11 Exactly. He is the biggest reason that Georgia wins Saturday. Aaron Murray was the biggest question mark entering the season, and with all due respect to Green, Murray has been the biggest exclamation point for the Dawgs this season. Georgia’s QB position is locked in and locked down for years to come. Florida has a few QBs it will rotate in and out due to necessity, but Georgia can go with the steady leadership and mistake-free play of Murray, who might just go 1-0 against the man that wanted him to come to Florida. Murray, with his legs, his arm and his cool, will take the Dawgs to a place that the squad hasn’t been to in quite some time: the victors’ lockerroom after the game on Saturday.

Prediction: Georgia 26, Florida 20

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