Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Final thoughts on the Javy Vazquez deal.

Note: this column appears in this week's Score Atlanta as I fill in for IJ in the "From the Cheap Seats" section in the front of the paper. Pick it up this Thursday!

Near the end of A Few Good Men, Jack Nicholson’s character Col. Nathan Jessep screams at Tom Cruise, “You just weakened a country today. I hope you’re happy.” Braves Nation was certainly weakened this week as the team sent its best starting pitcher Javier Vazquez, along with Boone Logan, to the New York Yankees in exchange for outfielder Melky Cabrera, reliever Michael Dunn and minor league pitching phenom Arodys Vizcaino. Though he spent just one season in Atlanta, Vazquez endeared himself to the Braves locker room and the fans by simply serving as the team’s best starting pitcher. Derek Lowe was signed prior to the 2009 season to a huge contract and was expected to be the team’s ace, but it was Vazquez, acquired before the season in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, that became the team’s rock. Vazquez was just 15-10 but easily could have added a few more wins to that total if he had received something resembling even a hint of run support. The powerhouse right-hander posted a 2.87 ERA and tossed three complete games while striking out 238 hitters in over 200 innings pitched. Vazquez leaves the Braves with one year remaining on his deal and perhaps this is why he is starting his second tour of duty in the Bronx. Maybe Braves GM Frank Wren was afraid Vazquez would pitch himself out of Atlanta’s price range. Vazquez was 14-10 in his first stint with the Yankees in the 2004 season and was a favorite of Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

Or maybe Wren knew he was going to do this all off-season long and the dance with dangling Derek Lowe was just to drive up the bounty on any trade involving Vazquez. Lowe’s deal still has three years left and nearly $45M left that the Braves owe him guaranteed. Lowe has shown a history of being a big game pitcher but his first season with Atlanta was a disappointing one, especially when compared to Vazquez’s year with the team. Lowe could certainly turn things around but he must put aside any ill feelings he harbors against the team over the trade rumors. He is a professional and he should realize that this is a business.

And the reality is that because of Vazquez’s success last season as well as his contract status, his haul was greater than anything Lowe could have brought back to Atlanta. Getting a twenty-five year old ready to start everyday in the outfield as well as one of the top pitchers in the minors was a coup for Wren, who seems to have an eye for picking out prospects in other team’s minor league systems. Melky Cabrera comes to Atlanta a career .269 hitter though last season he averaged .274 with 13 home runs and 28 doubles while splitting time in centerfield. Cabrera will be given every chance to start everyday in likely leftfield and could be the power that Atlanta needs from the corner outfield spot. His home run totals have steadily gone up and he could surpass his career high in RBI (73) easily in Atlanta as he faces National League pitching. Cabrera has a higher on-base percentage than former Brave Andruw Jones at the age of 25, with whom many will compare the young Cabrera, fair or not.

The minor leaguer Arodys Vizcaino comes to the Braves with much fanfare as he was ranked by Baseball America as the Yankees No.3 overall prospect and the top prospect in the club’s farm system. Says Greg Fertel of The Bleacher Report, Vizcaino is a heralded pitching prospect that “has shown tremendous polish and stuff, giving him a very high ceiling.” If Vizcaino continues on his rise through the minor leagues (he is just 19 years old) he could team with another 19-year-old in Julio Teheran to give the Braves a starting rotation of Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens (another prized young arm acquired by Wren for an aging, expiring contract), Teheran and Vizcaino that might one day rival the Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine-Avery rotation of the early 90s. Wren does his homework on picking out jewel pitchers, and Vizcaino might one day make everyone forget about Vazquez.

But for now that will be tough to do. For so many years Atlanta was always on the receiving end of getting a pitcher like Vazquez for young unknowns. Greg Maddux was a free agent signing but Denny Neagle, Andy Ashby, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson and even Vazquez last season were all pitchers brought into Atlanta. It feels odd to be on the other side of a trade like this, but thanks to Hudson’s return from injury, the Braves had one too many pitchers in the starting rotation. The dealing away of an ace is something that the folks of Cleveland, Milwaukee, Oakland and Pittsburgh have gotten used to that Atlanta must now deal with. Does this move signal the white flag for Atlanta for the 2010 season? It does not. The rotation is still loaded with Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson and Kawakami, and now the team has a leftfielder that it was seeking and one that could stick around with no baggage that other trades might have brought in. Cabrera can easily slide over to leftfield and brings a decent glove that Garrett Anderson could never promise as he stumbled around Turner Field’s outfield. Cabrera’s addition immediately gives the Braves a better outfield than anything it trotted out in 2009.

While the loss of Vazquez hurts right now, the total impact of the loss should not be judged until this team breaks from spring training. If we see Kawakami struggling or Hudson not able to return to pre-Tommy John surgery form or if Hanson suffers the sophomore slump then Braves fans will throw up their arms and call for Wren’s head. However Cabrera with a full-time job and the rise of Vizcaino could end up being yet another feather in the cap of Frank Wren. Only time will tell.

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