Sportsbyfletch was clearly cool enough to be spotted by the Hooters magazine people and we were commissioned to write the 2010 MLB preview. Yesterday I gave you the American League look ahead. Today, we give you the NL forecast. Enjoy.
If the 2000 decade was in fact Star Wars with Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and New York fighting for supreme baseball power, the New York Yankee Empire struck back with its 27th title in 2009. Those teams were also seemingly the only ones that went after the major stars all decade, with nearly every major free agent signing with one of those clubs. The Yankees won the 2000 title and the 2009 title and reached the World Series two other times. The Red Sox broke an 86 year championship drought then won another three seasons later. Philadelphia, Los Angeles/Anaheim and the Chicago White Sox claimed titles with the Cubs and the Mets both nearly claiming titles themselves. Some of the smaller teams were fun to watch too as they made postseason runs with the Marlins claiming a title, the A’s playing Moneyball and the Twins employing two MVPs.
In 2010, expect the small market teams to return to the forefront for a big-time battle with the larger markets this postseason. Player movement has made the big fish even bigger but several of the “small market” teams have the resources to make a serious run at a title. While Philadelphia traded one former Cy Young award winner (Cliff Lee) for another Cy Young award winner (Roy Halladay), the San Francisco Giants still boast a two-time winner themselves in Tim Lincecum and another potential winner in Matt Cain. Oh and Barry Zito once won one himself. The National League will be won by one of those two squads with the Dodgers, Cardinals and Mets, despite the huge payrolls, watching the pennant play out with all of the other small market clubs.
In the American League, Boston reloaded to take another run at the Yankees but Seattle seemingly had the best off-season, picking up Cliff Lee. The Yankees picked up Javy Vazquez from Atlanta to fortify its already strong pitching staff and if the offense keeps raking, I’m not certain anyone can catch the Bombers. Out west, the Angels lost too much to continue its run of dominance, so Seattle should take the division and Boston will take the Wild Card. In the Central, expect reigning MVP Joe Mauer to continue to impressing the heck out of everyone and lead the Twins right to the World Series. Does Minnesota have enough to knock off Philadelphia? I doubt it. That’s why the Phillies take their second World Series title in three years.
Over on the senior circuit…
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Dugout: Charlie Manuel, 6th season with Philadelphia. Manuel is in NO danger of a hotseat and is just a handful of games away from his 700th career victory.
Analysis: Losing Cliff Lee, the team’s best pitcher in the postseason should have been a big blow, but the team voluntarily sent him out of town while importing Roy Halladay. The former Blue Jay pitcher will likely dominate the National League like he did the American League and the Phillies, with all of those bats are near locks to make it back to the World Series. Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins already have MVP awards, could Chase Utley add one this year? He might have some competition with Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth on his own team. Philly is loaded for another run with no visible flaws.
Atlanta Braves
Dugout: Bobby Cox, 21st year with Atlanta. Cox enters his final season with Atlanta and a good year gets him to 2500 wins.
Analysis: Very few teams were as hot as Atlanta was after the All-Star break in 2009. This season Atlanta must start hot if it wants to have any shot at the division or more likely the Wild Card. Newcomer Troy Glaus will play at first base (only 6 career starts there) and hit fourth after missing most of last year with an injury. The rotation is one of the best in baseball, with Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson giving hope for the future. Brian McCann is also the best catcher outside of Minnesota in baseball today. The Wild Card is likely if key guys (Chipper Jones, McCann, and Glaus) can stay healthy.
New York Mets
Dugout: Jerry Manuel, 3rd year with New York. In New York, with this payroll, if Manuel doesn’t challenge for a playoff spot, expect a new manager by 2011.
Analysis: After watching the cross-town Yankees claim yet another World Series title, the Mets brass once again went out and spent big, bringing in OF Jason Bay. Bay should crush National League pitching if he can avoid falling victim to the New York Mets “free agent curse” that always seems to affect any player that takes the Mets big dollars. Bay will flank Carlos Beltran in the New York outfield and provide some cover for third baseman David Wright in the lineup. Jose Reyes can still fly around the base paths when not in the manager’s doghouse. Johan Santana might need some help too in the rotation.
Florida Marlins
Dugout: Fredi Gonzalez, 4th year with Florida. Gonzalez has improved the win total in each of his three seasons in Florida. The only danger here is if Atlanta pursues its former coach.
Analysis: The Florida Marlins went from fifth to third to second in the NL East and won 87 games last year. Now as Hanley Ramirez is entering his prime, the Fish could find themselves in the division hunt or out of contention after another fire sale. Josh Johnson might be dealt and Dan Uggla could find a new home by July. If the Marlins have early success, expect the team to try one last time with this collection of pitchers. If the Marlins fall out of the gate, the “expensive players” could follow Nick Johnson and Jeremy Hermida out of town.
Washington Nationals
Dugout: Jim Riggleman, 2nd season with Washington. Riggleman was 33-42 after taking over in midseason. The Nats have lost 100+ two straight seasons, fans expect improvement.
Analysis: Washington has been a player this off-season, signing Ivan Rodriguez to be the team’s new catcher as well as Matt Capps to serve as its new closer. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn are still nice pieces at the corner spots of the infield but the middle is lacking. The outfield offers little pop to help out the pitching staff. No.1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg will see the majors sooner rather than later and could team with Jordan Zimmerman to form quite a duo.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Dugout: Tony La Russa, 15th year with St. Louis. La Russa is just 211 wins behind John McGraw for second all-time in wins. Will he manage long enough to pass him?
Analysis: Let’s be honest: Albert Pujols will likely win yet another MVP award, especially with Matt Holiday backing him up in the lineup. Pujols is the best player alive and he’s doing with without PEDs. Speaking of which, how will the team do with admitted user Mark McGwire as its new hitting coach? That distraction could be around all season long. The pitching should once again be DOM with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter being joined by Brad Penny. Both Wainwright and Carpenter finished in the top three of the Cy Young voting last season as Wainwright won 19 games and Carpenter led the NL with a 2.48 ERA.
Cincinnati Reds
Dugout: Dusty Baker, 3rd season with Cincinnati. Baker loves playing vets over rookies; this team is starting to accommodate that.
Analysis: Have the Baby Reds grown up? The Reds seem to have put a team together that is ready to contend for a postseason berth. The infield imported third baseman Scott Rolen to pair up with Joey Votto on the corners. Brandon Phillips, at 28, is a “seasoned veteran” that led the team with 98 RBI last year. Votto and Phillips are strong in the heart of the order as Votto can rake (25 home runs). Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto are young studs on the pitching staff. Aaron Harang struck out 142 last year and Bronson Arroyo won 15 games. Homer Bailey and Micah Owings add rotation depth, and the Reds also won the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, signing the 21-year-old Cuban to a big deal.
Chicago Cubs
Dugout: Lou Piniella, 4th year with Chicago. If Piniella misses the playoffs yet again, expect Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg to get a shot at manager.
Analysis: Good thing the Cubs have Derrek Lee. The first baseman led the team in average, home runs, RBI, runs and OPS. Lee probably wishes he could get more help from expensive third baseman Aramis Ramirez and left fielder Alfonso Soriano. Right fielder Kosuke Fukudome is another money pit in the outfield that must step his game up or be replaced in the lineup. As far as the rotation goes, Carlos Zambrano has lights-out potential; he just needs to keep his emotions in check. Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and newcomer Carlos Silva will help Randy Wells and Zambrano out. Carlos Marmol has dominating stuff and can backend a bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers:
Dugout: Ken Macha, 2nd season with Milwaukee. Last year’s 80 wins were the fewest in Macha’s career. He gets to 500 career wins with 52 victories.
Analysis: The Brew Crew is yet another addition of Harvey’s Wallbangers, a collection of power hitters with some pitching thrown in for good measure. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun can both flat out yardsail and opposing pitchers would be wise to avoid both of these guys if possible. Alcides Escobar can play defense and the club is hoping his offense comes around soon. The pitching staff meanwhile is good enough to let the runs Fielder and Braun provide stand up. Yovani Gallardo is the future ace of the team, though last season he showed that the future may be now. Gallardo struck out 205 in over 185 innings of word while winning 13 games.
Houston Astros
Dugout: Brad Mills, 1st year with Houston. The rookie manager will have to find a way to move from the bottom half of the division into the top half.
Analysis: The Houston Astros are in a bit of an offensive bind after apparently letting the team’s best offensive player Miguel Tejada walk as a free agent this off-season. Lance Berkman remains and the team signed Pedro Feliz but the offense will feature little pop in 2010. Carlos Lee will be seeing a lot of walks this season with opposing pitchers looking to avoid the only threat Houston has. The pitching staff will have to make due with little run support, but does Wandy Rodriguez have another season in him like 2009? Can Roy Oswalt rediscover his filthy stuff? Can anyone step up as closer?
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dugout: John Russell, 3rd season in Pittsburgh. The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992. Don’t expect Russell to turn it around.
Analysis: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Pirates actually a few good young pieces in place, though not enough to challenge for the playoffs. Just a few seasons after boasting Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth and Jason Bay in the outfield, the outfield once again appears to be crowded with good young players in Andrew McCutchen, Gorkys Hernandez, Jose Tabata and the yet-to-explode Lastings Milledge. McCutchen showed last season that he will be quite a player at the major league level and Hernandez came over in the McLouth trade and could slide over to right. The infield is a little less promising with only Steve Pearce and Andy LaRoche scaring anyone, and they hardly do that.
NL West
San Francisco Giants
Dugout: Bruce Bochy, 4th season with San Francisco. Bochy will pass 1200 career victories early in the season and could move to over .500 for his career with a good finish.
Analysis: Last season the Giants had the pitching to make a postseason play but the offense was lacking. The Giants brass remedied that need this off-season by signing Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff to team with Pablo Sandoval. Last season “Kung-Fu Panda,” stroked 25 home runs with a .330 average to lead the team in both categories. The pitching staff should love the new run support but it barely needed any. Tim Lincecum won another Cy Young award and Matt Cain showed that he might bring one home down the road. Barry Zito gives the Giants another former winner though he hasn’t been in that form since signing with the Giants. Brian Wilson was lights out in the closer role last season.
LA Dodgers
Dugout: Joe Torre, 3rd season with LA. The Dodgers have reached the postseason with Torre but haven’t had Yankee-like success. This might be Torre’s last try.
Analysis: The Dodgers youth movement from a few seasons ago has netted back-to-back trips to the postseason under Torre and this season the team will look to get back via the offense. Manny Ramirez will continue to crush in Dodger Stadium and he’ll get cover from Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney in the lineup. None of those three is over 27 and all have played well under Torre. Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal offer nice options in the infield. As far as the pitching goes, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley have the stuff of No.1s but were outdone by Philly in the postseason last year.
Colorado Rockies
Dugout: Jim Tracy, 2nd season with Colorado. Tracy assumed the manager role midway through last season and took the Rockies to the playoffs.
Analysis: Once again the Rockies rallied after a slow start to make noise in the playoffs. Todd Helton is ageless and continues to hit as he seems revitalized with this crew. Troy Tulowitzki seems to have found his offense after an injury-filled sophomore slump in 2008 and is poised to improve on his high average and 32 home runs. The outfield is also full of young talent. The pitching staff may be the only thing holding Colorado back as pitchers never can count on being dominant in the thin air of Denver. Jeff Francis is recovering from an injury and Ubaldo Jimenez has highs and lows. This team always finds ways to win though. Don’t ever count them out.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Dugout: AJ Hinch, 2nd season with Arizona. Hinch took over last May and guided the team to just 70 wins. The D-Backs have too much talent to finish that low.
Analysis: Taking just a look at the roster and the numbers the offense put up last season, you’d never think that Arizona struggled to just 70 wins. The pitching staff is led by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, both very capable pitchers that have Cy Young ability. Factor in new editions Ian Kennedy and all-star Edwin Jackson and the rotation could be just behind San Fran in the division. The offense is led by Mark Reynolds (44 home runs) and Justin Upton (.300 average, 86 RBI). Stephen Drew, Eric Byrnes and Connor Jackson also dot the lineup. A major win increase should take place but this talent was here last year too. What happened?
San Diego Padres
Dugout: Bud Black, 4th season in San Diego. The former pitching coach has back-to-back losing seasons on his resume. The talent isn’t there to break that string.
Analysis: The face of this team right now is a question mark. Adrian Gonzalez should be a player that this team pushes to the forefront however trade rumors follow him and his 40 home runs around every corner. Gonzalez managed to do well last season despite zero help from anyone else in the lineup. The pitching staff is even lacking with major league arms other than Chris Young. Kevin Correia led the team in victories last year with just 12 and posted a 3.91 ERA with 142 strikeouts. This team is one man and one man only yet by the time you read this, that man might already be in Boston or Atlanta or Chicago.
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